Etude de l’impact des changements climatiques sur la disponibilité des ressources en eau basée sur les simulations du modèle climatique régional RCA4 : cas du bassin de Ain DALIA (Algérie)

S. Taïbi, F.Z.H. Anza, S. Zeroual

Abstract


Abstract: Global warming is likely to have serious repercussions on the availability of water resources through changes in precipitation regimes and rising temperatures. Understanding these changes in northern Algeria, where human life depends heavily on surface water and rainfed agriculture, is of crucial importance. In this study, we assess the potential effects of climate change on water supplies from the Ain Dalia dam by the end of the 21st century. The climate projections of the RCA4 regional model (Rossby Center Atmosphere model, version 4) were used to perform the hydrological simulations from the GR2M conceptual hydrological model over two future periods (2021-2050 & 2071-210). The RCA4 model is forced by four global circulation models (MPI-ESM-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5 and CNRM-CM5) under two radiative forcing scenarios "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulations of the most optimistic model RC4-CNRM-CM5 show respectively an increase of 1.3 ° C and 3.7 ° C in temperatures at the 2050 and 2100 horizons as well as a decrease in rainfall in wet seasons (winter and spring ) which varies from minus 5% by 2050 to 28% by 2100. To this end, the availability of surface water collected at the Ain Dalia dam is likely to decrease from 5% to 13% by 2050 and from 21% to 44% by 2100. These results can contribute to the establishment of a water resources planning and management tool to cope with the impact of future climate change at the basin level and take adequate adaptation measures to maintain the sustainability of resources and meet the water needs of the various water users of the Souk Ahras region.

Résumé: Le réchauffement climatique est susceptible d'avoir de graves répercussions sur la disponibilité des ressources en eau à travers les changements dans les régimes de précipitations et l'augmentation des températures. Comprendre ces changements en Algérie septentrionale, où la vie humaine dépend fortement des eaux superficielles et de l'agriculture pluviale, est d'une importance cruciale. Dans cette étude, nous évaluons les effets potentiels des changements climatiques sur les apports en eau du barrage d’Ain Dalia d’ici la fin du 21ème siècle. Les projections climatiques du modèle régional RCA4 (Rossby Centre Atmosphere model, version 4) ont été utilisées pour réaliser les simulations hydrologiques issues du modèle hydrologique conceptuel GR2M au cours de  deux périodes future (2021-2050 & 2071-210). Le modèle RCA4 est forcé par quatre modèles de circulation globale (MPI-ESM-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5 et CNRM-CM5) sous deux scenarios de forçages radiatifs "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs) RCP4.5 et RCP 8.5. Les simulations du modèle le plus optimiste RC4-CNRM-CM5 montrent respectivement une augmentation de 1,3 °C et 3,7°C des températures aux horizons 2050 et 2100 ainsi qu’une diminution de la pluviométrie en saisons humides (hiver et printemps) qui varie de moins 5% à l’horizon 2050 à 28% à l’horizon 2100. A cet effet, la disponibilité des eaux superficielles collectées au barrage de Ain Dalia risque de diminuer de 5 % à 13 % à l’horizon 2050 et de 21% à 44% à l’horizon 2100. Ces résultats peuvent contribuer à la mise en place d’un outil de planification et de gestion des ressources en eau pour faire face à l’impact des changements climatiques futures à l’échelle du bassin et prendre les mesures d’adaptation adéquates pour maintenir la durabilité des ressources et satisfaire les besoins en eau des différents usagers de la région de Souk Ahras.

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